Less people going to hospital with Omicron infection compared to Delta infection. Apologies, I had a few technical problems with todays video
Zoe update: Wednesday 22 December 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIGC310hPoI
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/everything-we-know-so-far-about-omicron
https://joinzoe.com/learn/category/covid
https://joinzoe.com/learn/new-omicron-variant
144,284 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK
In people who have had at least 2 vaccine doses
56,346 new daily symptomatic cases in the UK
70% + cases in England are now Omicron
The UK R value, 1.2
R value in London is 1.5.
From 17,000 omicron cases
Runny nose
Headache
Fatigue (either mild or severe)
Sneezing
Sore throat
(NHS test and trace is not telling users of their Omicron status anymore)
Report 50 - Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-50-severity-omicron/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/22/risk-of-hospital-stay-40-lower-with-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-suggests
Differences in the risk of hospitalisation between Omicron and Delta
1st to 14th December inclusive
Analysed data from all PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in England
Cases
S-gene Target Failure (SGTF) and genetic data
Omicron, n = 56,000
Delta, n = 269,000
Reduction in the risk of hospitalisation for Omicron relative to Delta infections
Endpoint, any attendance at hospital
20-25% reduced risk
Endpoint, hospitalisation lasting 1 day or longer
40-45% reduced risk
These reductions must be balanced against the larger risk of infection with Omicron,
due to the reduction in protection provided by both vaccination and natural infection.
Intrinsic differences in severity between Omicron and Delta
Omicron may result in slightly less severe disease
From the few neither previously infected nor vaccinated,
risk of hospitalisation, 11% lower for Omicron versus Delta
Level of protection from previous infection
Reduces the risk of any hospitalisation by 50%
Reduces the risk of a hospital stay of 1+ days by 61%
Risk of symptomatic infection with omicron
More protection after PF/MD than AZ
Hospitalisation risk by vaccination state
AstraZenca (AZ) (doses 1 and 2)
Omicron hazard ratios are lower than for Delta
Pfizer or Moderna (PF/MD) (doses 1 and 2)
Omicron hazard ratios are similar to those seen for Delta
Conclusions, after at least 2 vaccine doses
Protection against omicron infection has been largely lost
Remain substantially protected against hospitalisation
Does not substantially change Sage modelling
Pointing to 3,000 daily hospitalisations in England at the peak next month
Omicron cases in Scotland, Eave II study
(Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19)
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/data-from-scotland-on-omicron-severity-from-the-eave-ii-study/
https://www.ed.ac.uk/usher/eave-ii/key-outputs/our-publications/severity-of-omicron-variant-of-concern-and-vaccine
https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/severity-of-omicron-variant-of-concern-and-vaccine-effectiveness-
Hospital data from 23 November to 19 December
Risk of hospitalisation, 70% lower with Omicron than Delta.
15 hospitalisations with Omicron
Opposed to the 47 admissions from delta
(Expected given the characteristics of those infected)
First case of Omicron confirmed by viral sequencing was recorded in Scotland on November 23, 2021
By December 19, 2021, there were 23,840 S gene negative cases.
These S gene negative cases were predominantly in the age group 20-39 (11,732; 49.2%).
Reinfections, more than 10 times more likely with omicron
Omicron positive cases that were reinfections, 7.6%
Delta cases that were
reinfections, 0.7%
The third/booster vaccine dose was associated with a 57% reduction in the risk of symptomatic omicron infection
(relative to ≥25 weeks post second dose)
Interpretation
These early national data suggest that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta.
Whilst offering the greatest protection against Delta, the third/booster dose of vaccination offers substantial additional protection against the risk of symptomatic COVID-19 for Omicron,
when compared to ≥25 weeks post second vaccine dose.
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